The value of discharged case fatality rate in estimating the severity and epidemic trend of COVID-19 in China: a novel epidemiological study.

Aim: The main objective of this study was to explore the value of the discharged case fatality rate (DCFR) in estimating the severity and epidemic trend of COVID-19 in China. Subjects and methods: Epidemiological data on COVID-19 in China and Hubei Province were obtained from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China from January 20, 2020, to March 31, 2020. The number of daily new confirmed cases, daily confirmed deaths, daily recovered cases, the proportion of daily deaths and total deaths of discharged cases were collected, and the total discharge case fatality rate (tDCFR), daily discharge case fatality rate (dDCFR), and stage-discharge case fatality rate (sDCFR) were calculated. We used the R software (version 3.6.3, R core team) to apply a trimmed exact linear time method to search for changes in the mean and variance of dDCFR in order to estimate the pandemic phase from dDCFR. Results: The tDCFR of COVID-19 in China was 4.16% until March 31, 2020. According to the pattern of dDCFR, the pandemic was divided into four phases: the transmission phase (from January 20 to February 2), the epidemic phase (from February 3 to February 14), the decline phase (from February 15 to February 22), and the sporadic phase (from February 23 to March 31). The sDCFR for these four phases was 43.18% (CI 39.82-46.54%), 13.23% (CI 12.52-13.94%), 5.86% (CI 5.49-6.22%), and 1.61% (CI 1.50-1.72%), respectively. Conclusion: DCFR has great value in assessing the severity and epidemic trend of COVID-19. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01895-4.

Immunogenicity and safety of an egg culture-based quadrivalent inactivated non-adjuvanted subunit influenza vaccine in subjects ≥3 years: A randomized, multicenter, double-blind, active-controlled phase III, non-inferiority trial.

Subunit influenza vaccine only formulated with surface antigen proteins has better safety profiles relative to split-virion influenza vaccine. Compared to the traditional quadrivalent split-virion influenza vaccine, a novel quadrivalent subunit influenza vaccine is urgently needed in China. We completed a phase 3, randomized, double-blind, active-controlled, non-inferiority clinical study at two sites in Henan Province, China. Eligible volunteers were split into four age cohorts (3-8 years, 9-17 years, 18-64 years, and ≥ 65 years, based on their dates of birth) and randomly assigned (1:1) to the subunit and the split-virion ecNAIIV4 groups. All volunteers were intramuscularly administered a single vaccine dose at baseline, and children aged 3-8 years received a boosting dose at day 28. And the immune response was evaluated by measuring hemagglutinin-inhibition antibody titers against the four vaccine strains in blood samples. Safety profiles had nonsignificant differences between the study groups in ≥ 3 years cohort. Most adverse reactions post-vaccination, both local and systemic, were mild to moderate and resolved within 3 days. And no serious adverse events occurred. The immunogenicity of the trial vaccine was non-inferior to the comparator. Further, a two-dose vaccine series can provide better seroprotection than that of a one-dose series in children aged 3-8 years, with clinically acceptable safety profiles. Clinical Trials Registration. ChiCTR2100049934.

Safety and Immunogenicity of an Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccine, WIBP-CorV, in Healthy Children: Interim Analysis of a Randomized, Double-Blind, Controlled, Phase 1/2 Trial.

Safe and effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 for children are urgently needed. Here we aimed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated COVID-19 vaccine candidate, WIBP-CorV, in participants aged 3-17 years. A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 clinical trial was conducted in Henan Province, China, in healthy children aged 3-17 years. 240 participants in phase 1 trial and 576 participants in phase 2 trial were randomly assigned to vaccine or control with an age de-escalation in three cohorts (3-5, 6-12 and 13-17 years) and dose-escalation in three groups (2.5, 5.0 and 10.0µg/dose), and received 3 intramuscular injections at day 0, 28, and 56. WIBP-CorV showed a promising safety profile with approximately 17% adverse reactions within 30 days after injection and no grade 3 or worse adverse events. The most common adverse reaction was injection site pain, followed by fever, which were mild and self-limiting. The geometric mean titers of neutralizing antibody ranged from 102.2 to 1065.5 in vaccinated participants at 28 days after the third vaccination, and maintained at a range of 14.3 to 218.2 at day 180 after the third vaccination. WIBP-CorV elicited significantly higher titers of neutralizing antibody in the cohort aged 3-5 years than the other two cohorts. There were no detectable antibody responses in all alum-only groups. Taken together, our data demonstrate that WIBP-CorV is safe and well tolerated at all tested doses in participants aged 3-17 years, and elicited robust humoral responses against SARS-CoV-2 lasted for at least 6 months after the third vaccination. This study is ongoing and is registered with www.chictr.org.cn, ChiCTR2000031809.

A Combined Model of SARIMA and Prophet Models in Forecasting AIDS Incidence in Henan Province, China.

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a serious public health problem. This study aims to establish a combined model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Prophet models based on an L1-norm to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan province, China. The monthly incidences of AIDS in Henan province from 2012 to 2020 were obtained from the Health Commission of Henan Province. A SARIMA model, a Prophet model, and two combined models were adopted to fit the monthly incidence of AIDS using the data from January 2012 to December 2019. The data from January 2020 to December 2020 was used to verify. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the prediction effect among the models. The results showed that the monthly incidence fluctuated from 0.05 to 0.50 per 100,000 individuals, and the monthly incidence of AIDS had a certain periodicity in Henan province. In addition, the prediction effect of the Prophet model was better than SARIMA model, the combined model was better than the single models, and the combined model based on the L1-norm had the best effect values (MSE = 0.0056, MAE = 0.0553, MAPE = 43.5337). This indicated that, compared with the L2-norm, the L1-norm improved the prediction accuracy of the combined model. The combined model of SARIMA and Prophet based on the L1-norm is a suitable method to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan. Our findings can provide theoretical evidence for the government to formulate policies regarding AIDS prevention.

Safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated COVID-19 vaccine, BBIBP-CorV, in people younger than 18 years: a randomised, double-blind, controlled, phase 1/2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Although SARS-CoV-2 infection often causes milder symptoms in children and adolescents, young people might still play a key part in SARS-CoV-2 transmission. An efficacious vaccine for children and adolescents could therefore assist pandemic control. For further evaluation of the inactivated COVID-19 vaccine candidate BBIBP-CorV, we assessed the safety and immunogenicity of BBIBP-CorV in participants aged 3-17 years. METHODS: A randomised, double-blind, controlled, phase 1/2 trial was done at Shangqiu City Liangyuan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Henan, China. In phases 1 and 2, healthy participants were stratified according to age (3-5 years, 6-12 years, or 13-17 years) and dose group. Individuals with a history of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV infection were excluded. All participants were randomly assigned, using stratified block randomisation (block size eight), to receive three doses of 2 µg, 4 µg, or 8 µg of vaccine or control (1:1:1:1) 28 days apart. The primary outcome, safety, was analysed in the safety set, which consisted of participants who had received at least one vaccination after being randomly assigned, and had any safety evaluation information. The secondary outcomes were geometric meant titre (GMT) of the neutralising antibody against infectious SARS-CoV-2 and were analysed based on the full analysis set. This study is registered with www.chictr.org.cn, ChiCTR2000032459, and is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between Aug 14, 2020, and Sept 24, 2020, 445 participants were screened, and 288 eligible participants were randomly assigned to vaccine (n=216, 24 for each dose level [2/4/8 µg] in each of three age cohorts [3-5, 6-12, and 13-17 years]) or control (n=72, 24 for each age cohort [3-5, 6-12, and 13-17 years]) in phase 1. In phase 2, 810 participants were screened and 720 eligible participants were randomly assigned and allocated to vaccine (n=540, 60 for each dose level [2/4/8 µg] in each of three age cohorts [3-5, 6-12, and 13-17 years]) or control (n=180, 60 for each age cohort [3-5, 6-12, and 13-17 years]). The most common injection site adverse reaction was pain (ten [4%] 251 participants in all vaccination groups of the 3-5 years cohort; 23 [9·1%] of 252 participants in all vaccination groups and one [1·2%] of 84 in the control group of the 6-12 years cohort; 20 [7·9%] of 252 participants in all vaccination groups of the 13-17 years cohort). The most common systematic adverse reaction was fever (32 [12·7%] of 251 participants in all vaccination groups and six [7·1%] of 84 participants in the control group of the 3-5 years cohort; 13 [5·2%] of 252 participants in the vaccination groups and one [1·2%] of 84 in the control group of the 6-12 years cohort; 26 [10·3%] of 252 participants in all vaccination groups and eight [9·5%] of 84 in the control group of the 13-17 years cohort). Adverse reactions were mostly mild to moderate in severity. The neutralising antibody GMT against the SARS-CoV-2 virus ranged from 105·3 to 180·2 in the 3-5 years cohort, 84·1 to 168·6 in the 6-12 years cohort, and 88·0 to 155·7 in the 13-17 years cohort on day 28 after the second vaccination; and ranged from 143·5 to 224·4 in the 3-5 years cohort, 127 to 184·8 in the 6-12 years cohort, and 150·7 to 199 in the 13-17 years cohort on day 28 after the third vaccination. INTERPRETATION: The inactivated COVID-19 vaccine BBIBP-CorV is safe and well tolerated at all tested dose levels in participants aged 3-17 years. BBIBP-CorV also elicited robust humoral responses against SARS-CoV-2 infection after two doses. Our findings support the use of a 4 µg dose and two-shot regimen BBIBP-CorV in phase 3 trials in the population younger than 18 years to further ascertain its safety and protection efficacy against COVID-19. FUNDING: National Program on Key Research Project of China, National Mega projects of China for Major Infectious Diseases, National Mega Projects of China for New Drug Creation, and Beijing Science and Technology Plan. TRANSLATION: For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in healthy adults aged 18 years or older: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated vaccine against COVID-19 in Chinese adults aged ≥18 years. METHODS: This is an ongoing randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 clinical trial among healthy adults aged ≥18 years in Henan Province, China. Participants (n = 336 in 18-59 age group and n = 336 in ≥60 age group) were enrolled between April 12 and May 17 2020, and were equally randomized to receive vaccine or placebo (aluminum hydroxide adjuvant) in a three-dose schedule of 2·5, 5, or 10 µg on days 0, 28, and 56. Another 448 adults aged 18-59 years were equally allocated to four groups (a one-dose schedule of 10 µg, and two-dose schedules of 5 µg on days 0 and 14/21/28) and received vaccine or placebo (ratio 3:1 within each group). The primary outcomes were 7-day post-injection adverse reactions and neutralizing antibody titres on days 28 and 90 after the whole-course vaccination. Trial registration: www.chictr.org.cn #ChiCTR2000031809. FINDINGS: The 7-day adverse reactions occurred in 4·8% to 32·1% of the participants in various groups, and most adverse reactions were mild, transient, and self-limiting. Twenty participants reported 68 serious adverse events which were judged to be unrelated to the vaccine. The 90-day post-injection geometric mean titres of neutralizing antibody ranged between 87 (95% CI: 61-125) and 129 (99-169) for three-dose schedule among younger and older adults; 20 (14-27), 53 (38-75), and 44 (32-61) in 5 µg days 0 and 14/21/28 groups, respectively, and 7 (6-9) in one-dose 10 µg group. There were no detectable antibody responses in all placebo groups. INTERPRETATION: The inactivated vaccine against COVID-19 was well tolerated and immunogenic in both younger and older adults. The two-dose schedule of 5 µg on days 0 and 21/28 and three-dose schedules on days 0, 28, and 56 could be further evaluated for long-term safety and efficacy in the phase 3 trials.

Effect of an Inactivated Vaccine Against SARS-CoV-2 on Safety and Immunogenicity Outcomes: Interim Analysis of 2 Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: A vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is urgently needed. Objective: To evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of an investigational inactivated whole-virus COVID-19 vaccine in China. Interventions: In the phase 1 trial, 96 participants were assigned to 1 of the 3 dose groups (2.5, 5, and 10 µg/dose) and an aluminum hydroxide (alum) adjuvant-only group (n = 24 in each group), and received 3 intramuscular injections at days 0, 28, and 56. In the phase 2 trial, 224 adults were randomized to 5 µg/dose in 2 schedule groups (injections on days 0 and 14 [n = 84] vs alum only [n = 28], and days 0 and 21 [n = 84] vs alum only [n = 28]). Design, Setting, and Participants: Interim analysis of ongoing randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1 and 2 clinical trials to assess an inactivated COVID-19 vaccine. The trials were conducted in Henan Province, China, among 96 (phase 1) and 224 (phase 2) healthy adults aged between 18 and 59 years. Study enrollment began on April 12, 2020. The interim analysis was conducted on June 16, 2020, and updated on July 27, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary safety outcome was the combined adverse reactions 7 days after each injection, and the primary immunogenicity outcome was neutralizing antibody response 14 days after the whole-course vaccination, which was measured by a 50% plaque reduction neutralization test against live severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Results: Among 320 patients who were randomized (mean age, 42.8 years; 200 women [62.5%]), all completed the trial up to 28 days after the whole-course vaccination. The 7-day adverse reactions occurred in 3 (12.5%), 5 (20.8%), 4 (16.7%), and 6 (25.0%) patients in the alum only, low-dose, medium-dose, and high-dose groups, respectively, in the phase 1 trial; and in 5 (6.0%) and 4 (14.3%) patients who received injections on days 0 and 14 for vaccine and alum only, and 16 (19.0%) and 5 (17.9%) patients who received injections on days 0 and 21 for vaccine and alum only, respectively, in the phase 2 trial. The most common adverse reaction was injection site pain, followed by fever, which were mild and self-limiting; no serious adverse reactions were noted. The geometric mean titers of neutralizing antibodies in the low-, medium-, and high-dose groups at day 14 after 3 injections were 316 (95% CI, 218-457), 206 (95% CI, 123-343), and 297 (95% CI, 208-424), respectively, in the phase 1 trial, and were 121 (95% CI, 95-154) and 247 (95% CI, 176-345) at day 14 after 2 injections in participants receiving vaccine on days 0 and 14 and on days 0 and 21, respectively, in the phase 2 trial. There were no detectable antibody responses in all alum-only groups. Conclusions and Relevance: In this interim report of the phase 1 and phase 2 trials of an inactivated COVID-19 vaccine, patients had a low rate of adverse reactions and demonstrated immunogenicity; the study is ongoing. Efficacy and longer-term adverse event assessment will require phase 3 trials. Trial Registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry Identifier: ChiCTR2000031809.

Safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, BBIBP-CorV: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 trial.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic warrants accelerated efforts to test vaccine candidates. We aimed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine candidate, BBIBP-CorV, in humans. METHODS: We did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 trial at Shangqiu City Liangyuan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Henan Province, China. In phase 1, healthy people aged 18-80 years, who were negative for serum-specific IgM/IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 at the time of screening, were separated into two age groups (18-59 years and ≥60 years) and randomly assigned to receive vaccine or placebo in a two-dose schedule of 2 µg, 4 µg, or 8 µg on days 0 and 28. In phase 2, healthy adults (aged 18-59 years) were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to receive vaccine or placebo on a single-dose schedule of 8 µg on day 0 or on a two-dose schedule of 4 µg on days 0 and 14, 0 and 21, or 0 and 28. Participants within each cohort were randomly assigned by stratified block randomisation (block size eight) and allocated (3:1) to receive vaccine or placebo. Group allocation was concealed from participants, investigators, and outcome assessors. The primary outcomes were safety and tolerability. The secondary outcome was immunogenicity, assessed as the neutralising antibody responses against infectious SARS-CoV-2. This study is registered with www.chictr.org.cn, ChiCTR2000032459. FINDINGS: In phase 1, 192 participants were enrolled (mean age 53·7 years [SD 15·6]) and were randomly assigned to receive vaccine (2 µg [n=24], 4 µg [n=24], or 8 µg [n=24] for both age groups [18-59 years and ≥60 years]) or placebo (n=24). At least one adverse reaction was reported within the first 7 days of inoculation in 42 (29%) of 144 vaccine recipients. The most common systematic adverse reaction was fever (18-59 years, one [4%] in the 2 µg group, one [4%] in the 4 µg group, and two [8%] in the 8 µg group; ≥60 years, one [4%] in the 8 µg group). All adverse reactions were mild or moderate in severity. No serious adverse event was reported within 28 days post vaccination. Neutralising antibody geometric mean titres were higher at day 42 in the group aged 18-59 years (87·7 [95% CI 64·9-118·6], 2 µg group; 211·2 [158·9-280·6], 4 µg group; and 228·7 [186·1-281·1], 8 µg group) and the group aged 60 years and older (80·7 [65·4-99·6], 2 µg group; 131·5 [108·2-159·7], 4 µg group; and 170·87 [133·0-219·5], 8 µg group) compared with the placebo group (2·0 [2·0-2·0]). In phase 2, 448 participants were enrolled (mean age 41·7 years [SD 9·9]) and were randomly assigned to receive the vaccine (8 µg on day 0 [n=84] or 4 µg on days 0 and 14 [n=84], days 0 and 21 [n=84], or days 0 and 28 [n=84]) or placebo on the same schedules (n=112). At least one adverse reaction within the first 7 days was reported in 76 (23%) of 336 vaccine recipients (33 [39%], 8 µg day 0; 18 [21%], 4 µg days 0 and 14; 15 [18%], 4 µg days 0 and 21; and ten [12%], 4 µg days 0 and 28). One placebo recipient in the 4 µg days 0 and 21 group reported grade 3 fever, but was self-limited and recovered. All other adverse reactions were mild or moderate in severity. The most common systematic adverse reaction was fever (one [1%], 8 µg day 0; one [1%], 4 µg days 0 and 14; three [4%], 4 µg days 0 and 21; two [2%], 4 µg days 0 and 28). The vaccine-elicited neutralising antibody titres on day 28 were significantly greater in the 4 µg days 0 and 14 (169·5, 95% CI 132·2-217·1), days 0 and 21 (282·7, 221·2-361·4), and days 0 and 28 (218·0, 181·8-261·3) schedules than the 8 µg day 0 schedule (14·7, 11·6-18·8; all p<0·001). INTERPRETATION: The inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, BBIBP-CorV, is safe and well tolerated at all tested doses in two age groups. Humoral responses against SARS-CoV-2 were induced in all vaccine recipients on day 42. Two-dose immunisation with 4 µg vaccine on days 0 and 21 or days 0 and 28 achieved higher neutralising antibody titres than the single 8 µg dose or 4 µg dose on days 0 and 14. FUNDING: National Program on Key Research Project of China, National Mega projects of China for Major Infectious Diseases, National Mega Projects of China for New Drug Creation, and Beijing Science and Technology Plan.